In the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, the first time home buyer’s credit in effect for much of 2009 effectively stimulated home buying in this year, even though only 6% of first time buyers said the credit was the definitive thing that encouraged them to purchase. According to a recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) survey, housing prices and interest rates were cited as more powerful factors, but along with the credit, the combination was irresistible to many buyers. What happened in many areas was that the stimulus to housing was uneven, so lower priced homes have depleted inventories, while more costly ones sit unsold.
The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors colorfully described this in the recent edition of the Monthly Skinny: “Lower priced home sold like hotcakes, while higher priced ones moved like popsicles in January.”
The actual numbers match the flair of the Skinny:
Homes under $120,000 up 114.%
$120,000-150,000 up 52.9%
$150 ,000 – 190,000 up 10%
$190,000 – 250,000 down 7.5%
$250,000 – 300,000 down 10.4%
$300,000 – 500,000 down 14.9%
$500,000 – 1 million down 26.1%
$1 million – above down 36.7%
This situation reflects the basic economics of first time buyers who are often just starting out in their careers: they tend to buy homes priced under $200,000. In Minneapolis-St. Paul, local housing experts agree that sales increase over last year were due to first time buyer activity. For example, in October, the 4,500 signed agreement were up 34% since this time last year – the 16th month of year-over-year rising sales. The result is that inventories of lower priced homes are depleted.
Given those dynamics, a credit just for first timers wouldn’t have done much more to jumpstart housing had not repeat buyers been put in the equation this time around. Typically, people outgrow their starter homes and they want to move up. The $6,500 incentive for repeat buyers who are likely to buy homes at higher price points is expected to create a new pool of homes priced for first time buyers and start moving housing at higher price points.
The credit does not require repeat buyers to purchase a more expensive home, so theoretically, some repeat buyers might be in competition for some of the same houses as first time buyers. A smaller home appropriate for empty nesters will not necessarily be cheaper though, so hopefully most repeat buyers will be shopping at higher price points and finding great deals on homes that are still priced lower than a few years ago. The credit does not require an owner to sell his home; he could turn it into a rental and buy a new permanent residence. Since many first time buyers already took advantage of the credit last time, the new credit will still work to reduce inventories of higher priced homes and stabilize that part of the market.
First time buyer who still want to buy may be faced with dilemma. Unless the stock of homes for first time increases, would-be buyers will be faced with several choices:
• Buy a more costly home. This is not a workable option for most new buyers, as it could put their payment into the unaffordable range. Some buyers have bought homes with friends or family members to increase their buying power, but most people prefer to house their nuclear family
• Wait for an appropriate home to become available – and possibly become entangled in a bidding war for it.
• Settle for a home that is not really what they want
• Wait for the newest round of bank owned homes to hit the market. These homes tend to be priced at market value or below, but the ones with most attractive prices either need a lot of costly work or are snapped up by investors.
• Put off buying and miss the credit.
The best thing a buyer can do right now is hook up with an experienced real estate agent, such as one from the Ashworth Team. The agent can’t pull the perfect house out of a hat, but a good agent who knows the market can be a useful ally in finding a workable house in an area the buyer hadn’t considered or in being on the lookout for a newly-available house the buyer would like. The agent can also be a sounding board for a buyer considering a distressed property or one that might be a step above their normal affordability.
If you are thinking of buying a home in the Minneapolis / St. Paul area, give us a call. We can help you figure out what is affordable and then help you find a great house in line with your budget and your lifestyle as well as familiarize you with the fine points of the credit for first time homebuyers and repeat homebuyers.. We would love to earn your business!
Tony and Lori Ashworth952-997-8899