What industry pundits had been referring to as a correction in the housing market became a full-blown crisis of global proportion this past September when the closings of veteran financial institutions, combined with climbing unemployment and foreclosure rates, triggered a $700 billion government bailout-a costly tourniquet used during the triage of the American economy. A few short weeks later, most Americans-especially real estate professionals and consumers-are left struggling to comprehend exactly how The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act will help us. Will it keep homeowners in their homes and unfreeze the credit markets to facilitate home buying? Will it restore the real estate consumer confidence that is so desperately needed?
Time Will Tell
According to President George W. Bush, the historic bill that was signed into law on October 3, 2008, will take time to effect change-many liken it to waiting for a medicine to start reversing an illness. And, while there is no definitive plan yet that outlines exactly how the bailout bill will help (at press time), the government insists that the plan will not only buoy Wall Street but Main Street as well.
“Exercising the authorities in this bill in a responsible way will require a careful analysis and deliberation. This will be done as expeditiously as possible, but it cannot be accomplished overnight. We’ll take the time necessary to design an effective program that achieves its objectives-and does not waste taxpayer dollars,” said President Bush at a press conference held shortly after the bill was passed.
According to most economists and experts, the $700 billion financial industry bailout could make a recession shallower, and potentially even shorter, but it won’t stop the economic and housing downturns in their tracks.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explained that the principal goal of the bill is to unclog the financial pipelines so most Americans, the primary investors in the program, can begin borrowing again.
“Knowingly or not, the 75 million homeowners and 100 million taxpayers have now become the key stakeholders on the side of housing market recovery,” says Yun.
“This bill is likely to go through a few changes, and a new administration and Congress in January will make a lot of changes that we can’t foresee right now,” says Dave Liniger, co-founder and chairman of the board of RE/MAX Int’l. “But if our legislators listen to the consumer and create legislation that is truly responsive, I think it has a very good chance of having a positive impact on our industry.”
According to Carter Murdoch, SVP, marketing and compliance executive, Realtor-Builder Mortgage Services Group, Bank of America, the bailout is just the first step, “priming the pump” to help restore overall confidence in the financial markets. “The reality is, the liquidity crunch will take a minimum of six months, possibly more than two years to shake out,” he adds.
“I liken this to a hurricane,” says Bob LeFever, former president and COO of Coldwell Banker’s Southern California division and current president and CEO of consulting firm The LeFever Group. “First comes the wall of water. Then the eye of the hurricane comes over-the eye of the hurricane is the government stepping in with a $700 billion package. Now the aftermath is coming. This mess ain’t going to get cleaned up in 72 hours.”
Letting the Government In
The terms of The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (see plan highlights on page 128) authorize the federal government to buy billions of dollars in bad mortgages and other debt, taking the troubled loans off the books of financial firms. The bill contains broad language requiring the Treasury Department to develop a plan to “mitigate” foreclosures, and also requires federal agencies to encourage mortgage companies to modify the loans of borrowers in danger of foreclosure.
While the details of exactly how this particular part of the plan will be carried out remain undetermined, the real estate industry, and homeowners across America, remain uneasy about government’s hand in housing-but for now, can only conclude it’s a good thing.
“The government should get more involved; the rescue plan is the start of that,” says Harley Rouda, CEO & managing partner of Columbus, Ohio-based Real Living. “Mortgage terms should be reset with the original holders. However, the execution and perimeters set is critical.”
Patricia Hoferkamp, president and COO of Burgdorff ERA in Central and Northern New Jersey, believes that “the government should turn this over to those who do it best-the real estate industry. We need a system of checks and balances between the banks and the real estate industry. We need to reach out to our industry leaders, come up with a plan and then boil it back down to the local level.”
Will Confidence Return?
As Michael Levitin, 2008 chairman of the Houston Association of Realtors, says, “People are going to have to feel that the country has optimism and a solution. To get consumers back to real estate, change has to happen and there has to be a plan for that.”
According to most politicians, the bailout bill is designed to do just that-restore confidence in the country’s economy, an occurrence that would have a far-reaching impact on industries across all markets, especially real estate. But can the bill really deliver on that promise?
“Given the fact that we do have a crisis of confidence today, the passage of the bill at least starts the process at the macro level of bringing renewed stability and confidence to the market,” believes Ron Peltier, chairman and CEO of Minnesota-based HomeServices of America. “Early indicators are not suggesting that it was a knock-out blow in accomplishing that renewal of confidence in the marketplace and the economy, but as time passes in the next few weeks (at press time), we will see a calming effect and people will begin to have confidence again.”
Alex Perriello, president and CEO of the Realogy Franchise Group, concurs that real estate confidence may emerge as a byproduct of the bill. “The only thing that will help restore consumer confidence in housing right now will be rising home prices,” says Perriello. “The only way that will occur is when current inventory levels are reduced, which in turn, requires the availability of mortgage financing to qualified buyers. In that regard, the bill should be helpful, but don’t expect a miracle any time soon. This will take time.”
According to Gino Blefari, founder, president & CEO of Cupertino, California-based Intero Real Estate, consumer confidence is inextricably tied to job security-something that’s hard to come by for many Americans these days.
“People are now afraid for their jobs,” Blefari explains. “Consumers are just not confident in anything. We’ll have to wait and see how the country reacts to the bailout once things start to happen and the election is over (at press time).”
“The bailout will help restore confidence in the market, but there are some caveats,” adds Martha Hayhurst, president and CEO of Atlanta-based Harry Norman Realtors. “We still have an election (at press time) and a financial crisis on a global scale, for starters. When you add that to an already-shaken consumer, the result is home buyers sitting on the sidelines.”
Bringing the Bailout Home
According to Rei Mesa, president of Prudential Florida Realty, it is now more critical than ever for real estate professionals on the front lines dealing with consumers to be as informed as possible. “We’re looked upon by consumers as individuals who provide guidance,” says Mesa, “and, quite frankly, stay engaged. It’s now a requirement to stay informed.”
Perriello says that discussing options with clients is essential for real estate brokers and agents, especially in the face of the overwhelmingly negative media messages and confusion over the bailout.
“I suggest we talk about the here and now and not what the bailout ‘may’ mean sometime in the future,” says Perriello. “Now that the federal government controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in addition to FHA and VA, these traditional sources of mortgage funding are still readily available with expanded loan limits set earlier this year. The financial news media would lead people to believe that unless your last name is Rockefeller, you won’t be able to get a mortgage, which is factually incorrect and a gross misrepresentation of the current mortgage market.”
Liniger advises that real estate professionals “play the hand” they’ve been dealt. “I think it’s important that real estate professionals focus on being productive in this market,” he says. “Sellers either need to price their home right or consider staying off the market right now. And buyers should take advantage of the high inventory and lower prices.”
The Industry’s Role, Path Forward
While the country’s focus is on the here and now, real estate professionals need to keep an eye toward the future while digging through the situation at hand.
What can we learn, path forward? Peltier says the real estate industry of tomorrow needs to be better based in reality.
“We have to return to a period with legitimate controls on the mortgage industry,” he explains. “Mortgage markets were creatively coming up with products to fuel the appetite of the speculative investor mindset. We need to return to more normal lending standards and more normal purchase standards and requirements.”
Throughout it all, belief in the strength of the real estate industry and its leadership perseveres.
“Real estate leads us into these situations and leads us out,” says Hayhurst. “I think as good stewards of our industry, it’s our job to get people back to work. The resiliency of the American people is strong. They are just waiting for one green light and they’ll start buying homes again.” RE
-Maria Patterson, Stephanie Andre, Kayla O’Brien, John Voket